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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Budget Balance fell to -194.5B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Czech Republic Budget Balance fell to -194.5B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 8.4B from August's -186.1B reading.
Latest Release
-194.500000
Actual
—
Consensus
-186.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CZK | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Czech Republic) was reported at -194.50 billion in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -186.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -144.57 billion, ranging from -290.70 billion to 32.40 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -185.73 billion, down from the prior three at -71.57 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 98.87 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 54.11 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/CZK (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - CZ
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About Budget Balance — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -194.5 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -186.1 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -176.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CZK (Bearish EUR, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Low |
| 08:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low |
| 09:00 | CZ | M3 Money Supply YoY | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | 5.55 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | CZ | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | 53.3 | 52.45 | Low | |