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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.4% in July 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 6.3% from June's -3.9% reading. The reading missed the 3.1% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.02%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -1.1%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
3.1
Consensus
-3.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Japan) was reported at 2.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.1% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -4.1% to 4.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, down from the prior three at 1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.03%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - JP
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About Retail Sales MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -4.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 19.3 | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -1105.6 | -638.3 | -1052.6 | -1079.10 | High |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 28 | 27.9 | 26.3 | 27.15 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | -3.7 | 9.7 | -2.8 | -3.25 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 11.2 | 16.9 | 15.3 | 13.25 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.84 | -0.68 | -1 | -0.92 | Medium |