Japan's retail sales surged 4.1% MoM in January, sharply rebounding from December's -2.0%. This marks the strongest monthly gain in over a year, signaling renewed consumer momentum.

Japan Retail Sales MoM: January 2026 Data Signals Robust Recovery

Japan’s retail sector posted a dramatic turnaround in January 2026, with month-over-month sales growth far outpacing both market expectations and recent trends. This report dissects the latest figures, market reactions, and what they mean for the broader economic outlook.

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Apparel sales +1.2pp
Electronics +0.9pp
Food and beverages +0.7pp
Automotive +0.6pp

Policy pulse

January’s 4.1% surge stands well above the Bank of Japan’s preferred steady-state range for retail activity, which typically hovers near 1.0% MoM. This outsized gain will factor into policymakers’ assessments of underlying demand strength.

Market lens

Japanese equities rallied on the data release, with consumer discretionary stocks leading gains. The sharp rebound in retail sales has prompted traders to reassess the pace of domestic demand recovery, while the yen saw modest strengthening against major peers.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

January 2026: +4.1% MoM
December 2025: -2.0% MoM
November 2025: +0.6% MoM
October 2025: +1.6% MoM
September 2025: +0.3% MoM
12-month average: +0.3% MoM

Scenario spectrum

Bullish: Sustained gains above 2.0% MoM (20% probability)
Base: Normalization to 0.5–1.5% MoM (65% probability)
Bearish: Return to negative territory (15% probability)

Methodology

Data sourced from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, aggregated by Sigmanomics. Retail sales are seasonally adjusted and reported in nominal terms, capturing broad consumer activity across sectors.

Chart Dynamics

January’s 4.1% MoM print marks a dramatic reversal from December’s -2.0% and stands well above the 12-month average of 0.3%. The last comparable surge occurred in October 2025, when sales rose 1.6% MoM. Over the past six months, volatility has been pronounced, with three negative readings and three positive, underscoring the sector’s sensitivity to shifting consumer sentiment and external shocks.

Compared to the prior six months, January’s result is the highest since at least April 2025, when the index last saw a significant contraction. The current reading breaks a pattern of alternating gains and losses, suggesting a possible inflection point for domestic consumption.

Line chart showing Japan Retail Sales MoM from April 2025 to January 2026, with a sharp rise to 4.1% in January after a -2.0% dip in December. — Retail Sales MoM trend, April 2025 – January 2026

What This Chart Tells Us: The January spike interrupts a choppy trend, signaling renewed consumer vigor after months of stagnation. If sustained, this could anchor broader economic recovery, but the pattern of volatility warrants caution in extrapolating a new trend.

Forward Outlook

Upside and downside risks

Upside: Wage growth and government stimulus could reinforce spending momentum.
Downside: Persistent inflation or external shocks may quickly erode gains.

Scenario probabilities

Bullish: Further monthly gains above 2.0% (20%)
Base: Stabilization near 1.0% (65%)
Bearish: Renewed contraction (15%)

Market lens

Bond yields edged higher as investors priced in stronger consumer demand. The retail sales rebound has prompted a reassessment of growth prospects, though market participants remain alert to potential reversals if volatility persists.

Closing Thoughts

Key takeaways

January’s 4.1% MoM retail sales growth is the strongest in over a year.
Volatility remains a feature, with alternating gains and losses since mid-2025.
Market sentiment has shifted, but sustainability of this rebound is not assured.

Policy pulse

With retail sales far above trend, policymakers will scrutinize upcoming data for confirmation of a sustained recovery before adjusting their stance.

Key Markets Reacting to Retail Sales MoM

Japan’s robust retail sales data has rippled across asset classes, with equities, forex, and crypto markets all registering notable moves. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to shifts in Japanese consumer activity, reflecting both direct and indirect exposure to the country’s economic momentum.

AAPL — Apple’s Japan revenue is closely tied to consumer electronics demand, making it responsive to retail sales swings.
USDJPY — The yen’s value often reacts to domestic consumption data, with strong retail sales supporting currency strength.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin trading volumes in Japan can spike on major economic releases, reflecting risk sentiment shifts.

Month	Retail Sales MoM (%)	USDJPY Direction
Jan 2026	4.1	Yen strengthened
Dec 2025	-2.0	Yen weakened
Nov 2025	0.6	Stable
Oct 2025	1.6	Yen slightly up
Sep 2025	0.3	Stable

Since 2020, sharp moves in Japan’s retail sales MoM have correlated with immediate USDJPY volatility, underscoring the indicator’s market-moving power.

FAQ: Japan Retail Sales MoM: January 2026 Data Signals Robust Recovery

What does the latest Japan Retail Sales MoM data show?: Japan’s retail sales jumped 4.1% MoM in January 2026, reversing December’s -2.0% and marking the strongest monthly gain in over a year.
Why is this retail sales surge significant?: This sharp rebound signals renewed consumer momentum, with the 4.1% increase far exceeding both market estimates and the 12-month average.
How does this affect markets and policy?: Equities and the yen rallied on the news, while policymakers will closely monitor upcoming data to gauge the sustainability of this recovery.

Japan’s retail sector has staged a powerful comeback, but volatility remains a key risk to watch.

Updated 2/27/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

[1] Sigmanomics Economic Data, Japan Retail Sales MoM, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, release 2/26/2026.

Economic Calendar - JP Events

Wednesday, March 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ	3.8	4.7	5.5	4.65	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	-	25.3	22.5	24.35	Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.1	0.2	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2	2.3	2.1	2.08	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	24.2	25.3	25.3	27.15	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
Monday, March 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Annualized	1.3	-2.6	1.2	1.25	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0.30	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	1.3	-0.2	0.2	-39002.72	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.38	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.13	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.12	High
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.5	-2.2	0.8	0.68	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	-	0.9	1	1.23	Low
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-1	-2.6	2.5	1.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3	2.4	2.5	2.52	Low
22:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	0.1	0.3	0.32	High
17:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0	0.02	Low
07:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48	48.07	Low
06:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48.2	48.27	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	112.4	110.3	113	113.10	Low
04:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	111	113.2	113.30	Low
01:15	JP	Current Account	941.6	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.53	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3.15	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	3.3	1.5	1	1.23	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	40	37.9	38.1	38.37	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.8	53.7	53.8	53.70	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.90	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
17:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	-	53.7	53.8	53.70	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Capital Expenditure YoY	6.5	2.9	2.3	4.40	Medium
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-10.6	-9.5	-9.8	-10.10	Low
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.2	1.19	1.19	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	53	51.5	52.8	53.08	Low
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	5.7	20.2	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-0.4	-1.3	-2	-2.70	Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	2.6	1.2	2.03	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.48	Medium
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	4.1	-2	1.5	2.22	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	1.8	2	1.8	1.73	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.48	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.22	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.3	114.9	114.5	114.28	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.6	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
22:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
22:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
22:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.8	53.1	52.5	52.73	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52.8	51.5	52	52.25	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.8	53.7	53.3	53.65	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52.8	51.5	51.3	51.58	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	1.5	2.1	1.9	1.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2	2.4	2.3	2.22	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	2.6	2.9	2.8	2.72	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	19.1	-11	8.5	10.65	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	16.8	-6.4	2	2.68	Medium
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.46	-0.06	-0.18	0.05	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	16.8	5.1	12	13.53	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-2.5	5.2	3	1.32	Low
Monday, February 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-0.1	-2.7	-0.1	-0.13	Low
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	1.3	-5.3	3	1.05	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	2.6	3.43	Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.23	Low
23:50	JP	GDP External Demand QoQ	0	-0.2	0.1	0.05	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	0.2	-0.2	156013	117010.08	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.48	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0.1	0.12	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.2	-2.6	1.6	0.90	Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.17	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.28	Low
08:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	25.3	10.9	9.5	11.35	Low
Monday, February 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.1	50.5	50.3	50.25	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	47.6	48.6	48.8	48.87	Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Current Account	7288	3674	1400	2202.13	Medium
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.6	4.63	Low
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.83	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	2.4	0.5	1	1.02	Low
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.5	114.9	115.3	115.08	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.2	109.9	110.3	110.32	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.2	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
03:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-2.6	2.9	3.2	2.28	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.9	6.2	-2	-2.12	Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.30	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.90	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.25	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.5	-9.8	-10.3	-10.60	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.78	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.67	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-1.3	-8.5	-4.4	-5.10	Medium
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	20.2	9.5	-3	-0.60	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	-1.3	-0.47	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-0.9	1.1	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.19	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	CPI	1.5	2	1.8	1.78	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2	2.3	2.2	2.13	Low
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.9	37.2	37.6	37.87	High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.9	115.9	115.2	114.98	Low
Monday, January 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.52	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-1	-1.3	-0.7	-0.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.55	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.60	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	-	0.75	0.75	0.75	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.1	50.9	51.13	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.6	51.5	51.85	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50	50.3	50.55	Medium
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	-	50	50.1	50.27	Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Low
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	-	2.9	2.7	2.60	High
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	-	0.4	0.2	0.40	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	-	0.06	-0.06	0.17	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-	1.3	3.6	1.93	Low
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	-	6.1	6.1	7.63	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	-5.3	3.3	0.8	-1.15	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.2	1.6	-2.1	-1.27	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-2.7	1.5	-2.6	-2.63	Low
04:30	JP	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.2	0.9	0.3	0.05	Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	-11	7	-4	-1.85	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	-6.4	12.5	13.2	13.88	Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.4	2.7	2.4	2.38	Low
23:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	10.6	14.2	14.2	16.05	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.5	50.3	50.5	50.45	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.6	48.7	48.8	48.87	Low
Monday, January 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.13	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3674	2834	3594	4396.13	Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.2	115.9	116.2	115.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.42	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.7	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.7	1	0.5	0.22	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.50	Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	6.2	-3.5	2.7	2.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	2.9	-3	-0.9	-1.82	Medium
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.2	37.5	37.8	38.07	High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.63	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	0.5	2.6	2.3	2.32	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.1	52	51.5	51.50	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.40	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.35	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.8	-8.7	-8	-8.30	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.98	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.87	Low
Friday, December 26, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	-	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	1.6	1.4	2.23	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	0.6	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2.3	2.8	2.5	2.43	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.48	Low
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	9.5	-10.1	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-8.5	3.2	0.4	-0.30	Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
06:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
06:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
05:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.8	108.2	110	110.02	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.9	114.9	115.4	115.18	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.8	108.6	110	110.10	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:30	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	2.9	3	2.9	2.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3	3	3	2.92	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	0.4	0.4	0	0.20	Low
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	3	3.1	3.1	3.03	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	3	3	3	2.98	Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.06	0.07	-0.2	0.02	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	12.5	11.6	3.6	4.28	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	6.1	3.6	4.8	6.33	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	1.3	0.7	2.5	0.82	Low
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	7	4.2	-2.3	-0.15	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.5	53.2	51.6	51.95	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	49.7	48.7	49.5	49.75	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	51.5	52	51.9	52.13	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	49.7	48.7	49	49.17	Low