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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 3.78% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 3.78% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.01% from August's 3.79% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
3.780000
Actual
3.700000
Consensus
3.790000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.7
Actual: 3.78
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 3.78% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.08%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.79%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.15%, ranging from 3.78% to 4.52% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.83%, down from the prior three at 4.21%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.96%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY - MX
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About Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, over a 12-month period. This indicator provides insight into the overall inflation trend and is used by economists and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY may indicate rising prices and potential economic growth, while a lower rate may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.78 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 3.79 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.93 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |