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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.22% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.22% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.05% from March's 4.27% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
4.220000
Actual
4.260000
Consensus
4.270000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.26
Actual: 4.22
Error: +0.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 4.22% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.26% by 0.04%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.27%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.3%, ranging from 4.2% to 4.52% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.4%, up from the prior three at 4.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 4.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/MXN, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY - MX
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About Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, over a 12-month period. This indicator provides insight into the overall inflation trend and is used by economists and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY may indicate rising prices and potential economic growth, while a lower rate may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.22 %, consensus 4.26 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.27 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.46 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.