Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Full Year GDP Growth fell to 4.4% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased January 2026
Philippines Full Year GDP Growth fell to 4.4% in January 2026, down 1.2% from December's 5.6% reading. The print came in cooler than the 5.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.61%. Full Year GDP Growth is now the lowest in 48 months.
Latest Release
4.4
Actual
5.4
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 5.4
Actual: 4.4
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Year GDP Growth (Philippines) was reported at 4.4% in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.4% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.2%, up from the prior three at 1.23%. In January readings over the past 3 years, Full Year GDP Growth has averaged 5.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
SHARE
Full Year GDP Growth - PH
Loading chart data...
About Full Year GDP Growth — Philippines
DEFINITION
Full Year GDP Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the overall growth of a country's economy over the course of a year. It takes into account the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders and is a crucial measure of economic health and stability. A high Full Year GDP Growth indicates a strong and growing economy, while a low or negative growth rate may signal economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic performance of a country.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 4.4 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2025): 5.6 %. Before that (Jan 2024): 5.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.