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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal CPI MoM fell to -0.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Portugal CPI MoM fell to -0.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.6% from June's 0.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.72%. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 0.08%, vs 1.68% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.53
Actual: -0.5
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Portugal) was reported at 0.1% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.34%, ranging from -0.5% to 2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.3%, down from the prior three at 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI MoM - PT
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About CPI MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's CPI MoM rose 0.10% in August, reversing July's -0.50% decline. August's 0.10% marks a clear shift from contraction to modest inflation compared to July. The data may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming ECB policy decisions. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |