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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal CPI MoM fell to 0.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal CPI MoM fell to 0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 0.2% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.95%.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Portugal) was reported at -0.5% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.67%, ranging from 0.1% to 2% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, down from the prior three at 1.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI MoM - PT
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About CPI MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's CPI MoM for July registered -0.500000%, a sharp decline from June's 0.100000%, signaling a contraction in monthly inflation. This reversal from a slight increase to a notable decrease highlights easing price pressures in the Portuguese economy. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data for confirmation amid ongoing ECB policy considerations. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.15 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Business Confidence | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Consumer Confidence | -22.6 | -25.9 | -26.4 | -24.50 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.88 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.93 | Low |