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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal CPI YoY fell to 3.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Portugal CPI YoY fell to 3.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 3.3% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.18
Actual: 3.2
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Portugal) was reported at 3% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.17%, ranging from 2.7% to 3.3% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.23%, up from the prior three at 3.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI YoY - PT
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About CPI YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Portugal's CPI YoY for July came in at 3.00%, down from June's 3.20%, marking a continued easing in inflation pressures. This decline from June to July confirms a moderation trend in consumer prices year-over-year. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further signs of inflation stabilization amid current monetary policy. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PT | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low |
| 08:30 | PT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.30 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 | 0.93 | Low |
| 10:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -3.8 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.00 | Low |
| 16:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -6.7 | -7 | -7.3 | -7.22 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7 | -7.3 | -7.22 | Low | |