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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Full Year GDP Growth fell to 2.4% in February 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased February 2026
Thailand Full Year GDP Growth fell to 2.4% in February 2026, down 0.5% from January's 2.9% reading. The print exceeded the 2.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.24%. Full Year GDP Growth is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 2.2
Actual: 2.4
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Year GDP Growth (Thailand) was reported at 2.4% in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.27%, up from the prior three at -0.63%. In February readings over the past 3 years, Full Year GDP Growth has averaged 2.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Full Year GDP Growth - TH
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About Full Year GDP Growth — Thailand
DEFINITION
Full Year GDP Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the overall growth of a country's economy over the course of a year. It takes into account the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders and is a crucial measure of economic health and stability. A high Full Year GDP Growth indicates a strong and growing economy, while a low or negative growth rate may signal economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic performance of a country.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Feb 2025): 2.5 %. Before that (Feb 2024): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -3.5 | -6.4 | 1.6 | -0.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 1.25 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.90 | Low |
| 07:30 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | -14.5 | -20 | -13 | -13.75 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 | 52.5 | 52.85 | Low | |