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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Base Rate fell to 10.0% in January 2024
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2024
Hungary Base Rate fell to 10.0% in January 2024, down 0.75% from December's 10.75% reading. The reading matched the 9.75% consensus. Base Rate has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Base Rate averaged 11.13%, vs 12.75% in the prior 3-month window. Base Rate is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
10
Actual
9.75
Consensus
10.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Jan 2024
Predicted: 9.75
Actual: 10
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Base Rate (Hungary) was reported at 10% in January 2024. This beat the market consensus of 9.75% by 0.25%. The reading fell from the previous value of 10.75%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 10.75%, down from the prior three at 12.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2024.
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Base Rate - HU
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About Base Rate — Hungary
DEFINITION
Base Rate is a key financial indicator used by central banks to determine the minimum interest rate at which they lend money to commercial banks. It serves as a benchmark for the interest rates set by banks for their loans and other financial products. The Base Rate is influenced by various economic factors and plays a crucial role in shaping the overall interest rate environment, making it an important tool for monitoring and managing monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2024): actual 10 %, consensus 9.75 %. Prior reading (Dec 2023): 10.75 %. Before that (Nov 2023): 11.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - HU Events
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | HU | Balance of Trade | 104 | 900 | 682.50 | Low | |
| 06:30 | HU | Producer Price Index YoY | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.15 | Low | |
| Wednesday, July 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | HU | HALPIM Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 51.5 | 51.50 | Low | |