What is the Nikkei 225 forecast?

The Nikkei 225 (^N225) is forecasted using our adaptive model ensemble that generates 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day predictions with confidence intervals and expected zone analysis. View the latest Nikkei 225 forecast on this page.

What is the Nikkei 225 expected price range?

The Nikkei 225 expected move is estimated as a symmetric range around the current level across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions — see the expected-move ranges on this page.

How accurate are Nikkei 225 predictions?

Sigmanomics tracks all forecast accuracy transparently. View median absolute error and zone-containment metrics for Nikkei 225 and all other instruments on our Performance page at sigmanomics.com/performance.

How much could ^N225 move?

^N225 has an expected move of roughly ±3.5% over 7 days, ±5.4% over 14 days, ±8.3% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^N225's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.31 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a moderately trending path.

Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: Japan economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Last Updated: 7/24/26

^N225 reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.31 / 0.31 / 0.14). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±3.5% / ±5.4% / ±8.3% (7/14/28d).

short-term trend: choppy · drifted down7d

7 Day^prov

± 3.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.40

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±3.5/5.3/8.6%

medium-term trend: choppy · drifted down14d

14 Day^prov

± 5.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.31

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±5.4/8.2/13.2%

long-term trend: choppy · flat28d

28 Day

no forecast

path efficiency (ER)0.04

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.83), GDP Price Index YoY (r=+0.82), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (r=+0.82)

Inversely correlated: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (r=-0.88), Inflation Rate MoM (r=-0.86), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.84), New Car Sales YoY (r=-0.82), Retail Sales YoY (r=-0.82)

^N225

indices

Current Price

July 26, 2026

Market Closed

64611.15

Actual

June 26, 2026

-10.72%

72366.34

1 Month Ago

July 26, 2025

+23.71%

52229.49

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^N225 · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/9/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 5.4%range 61125.80 – 68096.50 · 14D

Upper / lower bound68096.50 / 61125.80

Outside-range leveloutside 61125.80 – 68096.50price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

SETUP

The Nikkei 225 (^N225) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^N225 index closed at 64,611.15 on July 24, 2026, reflecting a decline of 2.73% from the previous close of 66,422.60.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a modest downtrend with a decline of 2.13%, ranging between 62,704.60 and 72,831.73. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 67,855.06. The 14-day RSI stands at 41.7, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 2.30%, reflecting typical price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 2.30% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^N225 is currently trading 4.78% below its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 41.7, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Jul 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Primary economy: Japan economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Last Updated: 7/24/26

short-term trend: choppy · drifted down7d

7 Day^prov

± 3.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.40

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±3.5/5.3/8.6%

medium-term trend: choppy · drifted down14d

14 Day^prov

± 5.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.31

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±5.4/8.2/13.2%

long-term trend: choppy · flat28d

28 Day

no forecast

path efficiency (ER)0.04

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.83), GDP Price Index YoY (r=+0.82), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (r=+0.82)

Inversely correlated: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (r=-0.88), Inflation Rate MoM (r=-0.86), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.84), New Car Sales YoY (r=-0.82), Retail Sales YoY (r=-0.82)

^N225

indices

Current Price

July 26, 2026

Market Closed

64611.15

Actual

June 26, 2026

-10.72%

72366.34

1 Month Ago

July 26, 2025

+23.71%

52229.49

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^N225 · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/9/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 5.4%range 61125.80 – 68096.50 · 14D

Upper / lower bound68096.50 / 61125.80

Outside-range leveloutside 61125.80 – 68096.50price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 2.30%, reflecting typical price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Jul 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^N225

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^N225

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^N225

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^N225

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT