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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Adjusted Trade Balance climbed to -0.7 T in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Adjusted Trade Balance climbed to -0.7 T in October 2026, up 0.1 T from September's -0.8 T reading. The reading missed the -0.26 T consensus by 0.44 T. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.26 T. Over the past 3 months, Adjusted Trade Balance averaged -0.76 T, vs 0.08 T in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-0.7
Actual
-0.26
Consensus
-0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.28
Actual: -0.7
Error: +0.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Adjusted Trade Balance (Japan) was reported at -0.70 T in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.26 T by 0.44 T. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.80 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 22) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Adjusted Trade Balance - JP
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About Adjusted Trade Balance — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Adjusted Trade Balance for September registered at -0.700000 trillion JPY, missing the estimate of -0.260000 trillion JPY but improving from August's -0.840000 trillion JPY. The deficit narrowed month-over-month, indicating a slight easing in trade imbalances. Market focus remains on upcoming export data and Bank of Japan policy signals amid persistent external pressures. Updated 10/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -0.7 T, consensus -0.26 T. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -0.84 T. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.69 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Medium | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.40 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.9 | 2 | 1.85 | Low | |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | 54.5 | 54.60 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 51.9 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 | 50.75 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 1.7 | -1.9 | -1.90 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Index MoM | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | |