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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Adjusted Trade Balance fell to -0.09 T in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Adjusted Trade Balance fell to -0.09 T in June 2026, down 0.29 T from May's 0.2 T reading. The print exceeded the -0.21 T consensus by 0.12 T. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.16 T.
Latest Release
-0.09
Actual
-0.21
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Adjusted Trade Balance (Japan) was reported at -0.09 T in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.21 T by 0.12 T. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.20 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 19) and Exports YoY (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Adjusted Trade Balance - JP
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About Adjusted Trade Balance — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Adjusted Trade Balance for May came in at -0.090000 trillion JPY, beating the estimate of -0.210000 trillion JPY. This marks a sharp decline from April's surplus of 0.240000 trillion JPY, signaling a move into deficit territory. The shift pressures market expectations ahead of upcoming trade data and monetary policy reviews. Updated 6/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.09 T, consensus -0.21 T. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.24 T. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.09 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary tailwind in the projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -12.4 | 7.8 | 7.95 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | -1.9 | 10.8 | 12.68 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 25.4 | 26.5 | 27.20 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -406.9 | -680 | -514.20 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 19.3 | 19.9 | 22.65 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.88 | -0.44 | -0.21 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.50 | High | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.45 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.65 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.2 | 51.5 | 51.15 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 55.1 | 55.10 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.7 | 52.8 | 52.45 | Low | |