Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

• Core goods: +0.07pp
• Energy: +0.04pp
• Food: +0.03pp
• Shelter: +0.02pp
• Transport: +0.01pp

Policy pulse

March’s 0.2% monthly gain keeps inflation below the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 2% annual ceiling. The SNB has repeatedly emphasized vigilance but refrained from signaling imminent policy shifts in recent statements.

Market lens

CHF edged lower against major peers after the CPI release. The softer inflation print reduced bets on near-term tightening, with Swiss government bond yields slipping and equity indices holding steady. Market participants interpreted the data as a sign of contained price risks.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

• March 2026: 0.2%
• February 2026: 0.6%
• January 2026: 0.4%
• December 2025: 0.3%
• November 2025: 0.2%
• 12-month average: 0.28%

Comparative trends

March’s reading marks the lowest monthly gain since November 2025. The 0.2% increase is well below the 12-month average of 0.28%, underscoring a cooling trend after a brief acceleration in February. Over the last six months, monthly CPI changes have ranged from 0.2% to 0.6%.

Data source and methodology

Figures are sourced from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The MoM CPI measures the percentage change in the consumer price index from the previous month, reflecting short-term inflation dynamics.

Chart Dynamics

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (20–30%): CPI MoM remains at or below 0.2% in coming months, supporting stable real incomes and risk assets.
• Base case (60–70%): Monthly inflation fluctuates between 0.2% and 0.3%, with energy and food prices exerting mild upward pressure.
• Bearish (10–15%): A renewed surge in energy or imported goods pushes CPI MoM back toward 0.5% or higher, challenging the SNB’s stance.

Risks and catalysts

Upside risks include commodity price shocks and currency depreciation. Downside risks stem from weak external demand and persistent disinflation in core categories. The SNB’s policy flexibility and Switzerland’s robust trade position remain key stabilizers.

Closing Thoughts

Market lens

Swiss assets saw muted reaction as inflation cooled. The franc softened modestly, while bond yields drifted lower. Investors appear confident that the SNB will maintain its current policy stance, given the subdued inflation trajectory.

Broader implications

March’s CPI MoM print reinforces Switzerland’s reputation for price stability. With inflation running below the central bank’s ceiling and volatility contained, the macro backdrop remains favorable for both consumers and investors.