Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Portugal Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.0% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 1.6% from July's -0.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 2.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -2.05%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.66 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1.45
Actual: -2
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Portugal) was reported at -2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 2.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.86%, ranging from -3.8% to 4.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.03%, down from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.26%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.66%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Industrial Production MoM - PT
Loading chart data...
About Industrial Production MoM — Portugal
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP