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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Exports YoY climbed to -9.1% in July 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
Hong Kong Exports YoY climbed to -9.1% in July 2023, released August 2023, up 2.3% from June's -11.4% reading. The print exceeded the -13.6% consensus by 4.5%. Exports YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged -13.33%, vs -15.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-9.1
Actual
-13.6
Consensus
-11.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.32 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -9.75
Actual: -9.1
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/HKD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Hong Kong) was reported at 64.9% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 53%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 38.78%, ranging from 17.5% to 64.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 56.2%, up from the prior three at 45.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.07%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.11%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 28.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports YoY - HK
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About Exports YoY — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 64.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 53 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 50.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.67) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
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