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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Exports YoY fell to -11.4% in June 2016
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2016
Philippines Exports YoY fell to -11.4% in June 2016, released August 2016, down 7.6% from May's -3.8% reading. The print came in hotter than the -12.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -7.19%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged -3.95%, vs -7.83% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-11.4
Actual
-12.4
Consensus
-3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.01 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Aug 2016
Predicted: -13.33
Actual: -11.4
Error: -1.93
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Philippines) was reported at 24.1% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 8.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.24%, ranging from 4.6% to 24.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 12.67%, up from the prior three at 12.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.75%) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.65%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 15.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.01%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports YoY - PH
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About Exports YoY — Philippines
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 24.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 7.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 6.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PH Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | PH | Balance of Trade | -4.939 | -6.103 | -4.4 | -4.67 | Low |
| 01:00 | PH | Producer Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PH | Business Confidence | 0 | -25.2 | -45 | -22.50 | Low |