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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Korea Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 2.6% from May's 0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 2.2%. Retail Sales MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -1.75%, vs 1.37% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.98
Actual: 2.7
Error: -3.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (South Korea) was reported at 2.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.24%, ranging from -3.6% to 3.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.27%, down from the prior three at 1.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.35%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.96%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 1.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.68%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - KR
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About Retail Sales MoM — South Korea
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Saturday, August 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 62.8 | 70.7 | 59 | 60.90 | Medium |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 26.5 | 30 | 26.6 | 26.55 | Low |
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 30.32 | 36.09 | 29.59 | 29.95 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.80 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | KR | Current Account | 38.61 | 34.7 | 34.70 | Low | |