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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Budget Balance climbed to -2.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Russia Budget Balance climbed to -2.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's -2.5% reading.
Latest Release
-2.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
-2.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Russia) was reported at -2.2% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.75%, ranging from -2.8% to 1.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.5%, down from the prior three at -2.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.36%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.14%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nov 13) and Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - RU
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About Budget Balance — Russia
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -2.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -2.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 49.8 | 50 | 50.02 | Medium |