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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Trade Balance climbed to 21.76B in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
South Africa Trade Balance climbed to 21.76B in October 2025, up 19.39B from September's 2.37B reading.
Latest Release
21.760000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.370000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (South Africa) was reported at 21.76 billion in October 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.37 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 15.34 billion, down from the prior three at 19.26 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - ZA
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About Trade Balance — South Africa
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 21.76 B. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 3.97 B. Before that (Jul 2025): 20.29 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.