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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Consumer Confidence climbed to 89.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Consumer Confidence climbed to 89.8% in July 2026, up 1.9% from June's 87.9% reading. The reading matched the 88.0% consensus. Consumer Confidence has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 86.85%, vs 85.4% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
89.8
Actual
88
Consensus
87.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 88.43
Actual: 89.8
Error: -1.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Turkey) was reported at 89.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 88% by 1.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 87.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 85.45%, ranging from 83.5% to 89.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 87.83%, up from the prior three at 84.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.91%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.78%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 83.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - TR
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About Consumer Confidence — Turkey
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 89.8 %, consensus 88 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 87.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 85.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | CPI YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | CPI MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |