Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Irish Exchequer Returns fell to -1.8B in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Ireland Irish Exchequer Returns fell to -1.8B in February 2026, released March 2026, down 1.9B from January's 0.1B reading.
Latest Release
-1.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Irish Exchequer Returns (Ireland) was reported at -4.70 billion in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.07 billion, ranging from -1.80 billion to 10.40 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.80 billion, down from the prior three at 3.63 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 4, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
SHARE
Irish Exchequer Returns - IE
Loading chart data...
About Irish Exchequer Returns — Ireland
DEFINITION
Ireland's Irish Exchequer Returns posted a deficit of -4.700000 billion EUR in May, a sharp deterioration from April's -0.200000 billion EUR. The May reading marks a significant widening of the shortfall compared to the prior month. Market participants will monitor upcoming fiscal data closely amid this unexpected fiscal weakening. Updated 5/6/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -4.7 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.2 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -1.8 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.