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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Irish Exchequer Returns fell to -1.8B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Ireland Irish Exchequer Returns fell to -1.8B in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.2B from July's -0.6B reading.
Latest Release
-1.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
-0.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Irish Exchequer Returns (Ireland) was reported at -1.80 billion in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.29 billion, ranging from -2.30 billion to 10.40 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.57 billion, down from the prior three at 1.80 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.20 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Irish Exchequer Returns - IE
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About Irish Exchequer Returns — Ireland
DEFINITION
Ireland's Irish Exchequer Returns posted an actual deficit of -1.800000 billion EUR in August, widening from July's -0.600000 billion EUR. The deeper shortfall signals increased fiscal pressure compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming budget updates and central bank commentary amid this fiscal deterioration. Updated 9/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.8 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.6 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Residential Property Prices YoY | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Residential Property Prices MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.57 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Balance of Trade | 5.3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.83 | Low |