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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index climbed to 5.7% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index climbed to 5.7% in March 2026, up 2.1% from February's 3.6% reading. The print exceeded the 3.8% consensus by 1.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.72%. Over the past 3 months, Global Dairy Trade Price Index averaged 2.35%, vs 0.28% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.7
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: 5.7
Error: -2.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Global Dairy Trade Price Index (New Zealand) was reported at 0.6% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.24, ranging from -4.40 to 21.90 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.13, up from the prior three at 2.87. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.06) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.57). In March readings over the past 3 years, Global Dairy Trade Price Index has averaged 0.04.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.23.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (May 27) and Monetary Policy Statement (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Global Dairy Trade Price Index - NZ
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About Global Dairy Trade Price Index — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Global Dairy Trade Price Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that tracks the average price of dairy products traded on the global market. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the dairy industry, serving as a key benchmark for producers, traders, and investors. This index is closely monitored by industry experts and is used to inform strategic decision-making and risk management in the dairy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.