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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Retail Sales MoM climbed to -0.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Retail Sales MoM climbed to -0.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's -0.9% reading.
Latest Release
-0.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
-0.900000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (New Zealand) was reported at -0.4% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -1.4% to 1.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0%, up from the prior three at -0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.68%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - NZ
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About Retail Sales MoM — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 52.5 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 52.00 | Medium |
| 21:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 96.2 | 97.6 | 97.4 | 96.80 | Low |