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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 3.0% from May's 1.6% reading.
Latest Release
-1.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (New Zealand) was reported at -1.4% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.11%, ranging from -1.4% to 1.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.33%, down from the prior three at 0.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.09%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.71%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - NZ
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About Retail Sales MoM — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |