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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.0% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from July's -0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 1.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.0%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.45%, vs 0.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
0.4
Consensus
-0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.71 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.23
Actual: -1
Error: +1.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Turkey) was reported at -1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 1.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.32%, ranging from -2.9% to 3.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.63%, up from the prior three at -0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.5%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.71%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Oct 27) and Balance of Trade (Oct 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - TR
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About Industrial Production MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Consumer Confidence | 84.8 | 91.9 | 92 | 88.40 | Medium |
| 11:00 | TR | TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 36 | 37 | 36 | 36.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | TR | Overnight Lending Rate | 39 | 40 | 40 | 39.50 | Low |
| 11:00 | TR | Overnight Borrowing Rate | 34.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Participation Rate | 52.5 | 52.9 | 52.90 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.90 | Medium | |