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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Manufacturing Confidence fell to 99.8 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Manufacturing Confidence fell to 99.8 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2.2 from August's 102 reading.
Latest Release
99.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
102.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Confidence (Turkey) was reported at 99.80 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 102.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 102.01, ranging from 99.80 to 104.10 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 101.53, down from the prior three at 102.60. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.40) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.36).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Manufacturing Confidence - TR
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About Manufacturing Confidence — Turkey
DEFINITION
Index The Manufacturing Confidence Index is a key financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among manufacturers about the current and future state of the economy. This index is based on surveys and data collected from manufacturing companies, and is used to gauge the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector. It provides valuable insights into the sentiment and expectations of industry leaders, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 99.8. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 102. Before that (Aug 2026): 102.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish USD, r=0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |