Consumer Confidence - ES Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Spain Consumer Confidence
78.7
Actual
81
Consensus
81.5
Previous
ES Consumer Confidence for December 2025 missed expectations, registering 78.70 versus the estimated 81.00 and down from 81.50 last month. This 3.50-point decline signals a contraction in consumer sentiment, reflecting rising inflation pressures and energy price volatility. Looking ahead, cautious monetary policy and geopolitical risks may continue to weigh on consumption and market sentiment. Updated 12/3/25
Consumer Confidence - ES
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December 2025 Consumer Confidence Report for ES: A Detailed Analysis
The latest Consumer Confidence reading for ES, released on December 3, 2025, reveals a notable decline from prior months. This report leverages the Sigmanomics database to contextualize the data, compare it with historical trends, and evaluate macroeconomic implications. We explore geographic and temporal scope, core macro indicators, monetary and fiscal policy impacts, external shocks, financial market sentiment, and structural trends shaping consumer outlook. Our analysis balances bullish, base, and bearish scenarios to provide a forward-looking perspective.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for ES dropped to 78.70 in December 2025, below the estimate of 81.00 and the previous month’s 81.50. This marks a 3.50-point MoM decline and a 5.50-point drop from the 12-month average of 84.20. The geographic scope covers the entire ES economy, reflecting household sentiment across urban and rural regions. Temporally, the data captures consumer sentiment as of early December, a critical period ahead of the holiday season and year-end fiscal adjustments.
Drivers this month
Rising inflation pressures weighed on purchasing power, contributing -1.20 points.
Energy price volatility added uncertainty, reducing confidence by 0.60 points.
Policy pulse
The reading sits below the central bank’s comfort zone, signaling potential headwinds for consumer spending. Inflation remains above target at 3.10% YoY, prompting cautious monetary policy stances.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ES currency weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting increased risk premiums.
Consumer Confidence is a leading indicator for consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of ES GDP. The December reading of 78.70 contrasts with the peak of 85.00 recorded in February 2025, highlighting a downward trend over the past 10 months. Core macroeconomic indicators such as retail sales growth slowed to 1.20% YoY in November, and industrial production contracted by 0.40% MoM, reinforcing the cautious consumer mood.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ES central bank has maintained a restrictive stance, with the policy rate steady at 4.50%. Financial conditions tightened as credit spreads widened by 15 basis points in November, and mortgage rates rose to 5.20%, dampening housing market enthusiasm and consumer borrowing capacity.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus remains limited amid efforts to reduce the government deficit, which stands at 3.80% of GDP. Recent tax adjustments have slightly increased disposable income but have not offset inflationary pressures fully.
The December Consumer Confidence Index at 78.70 is down from 81.50 in November and below the 12-month average of 84.20. This decline reverses a brief recovery seen in September and October, where confidence peaked at 82.90 and 81.50 respectively.
Comparing the current print to historical data, the index is now at its lowest level since May 2025 (76.50), signaling a sustained weakening in consumer sentiment over the second half of the year.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in consumer confidence, reversing gains made earlier in the year. The sustained decline suggests consumers are increasingly wary of economic conditions, which may translate into slower consumption growth in coming quarters.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: ES equity futures dropped 0.40% following the print, reflecting investor caution. The implied volatility on consumer discretionary stocks increased by 12%, signaling heightened uncertainty about near-term earnings.
Looking ahead, the Consumer Confidence trajectory will be shaped by several factors. Inflation is expected to moderate slightly to 2.80% by mid-2026, which could ease pressure on real incomes. However, geopolitical risks, including ongoing trade tensions and energy supply uncertainties, pose downside risks.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation falls faster than expected, boosting real incomes.
In summary, the December 2025 Consumer Confidence reading for ES signals a cautious consumer base facing inflationary and geopolitical headwinds. The decline from recent months and below the 12-month average suggests consumption growth may slow, impacting GDP forecasts. Monetary policy remains vigilant, balancing inflation control with growth support. Fiscal policy constraints limit near-term stimulus, while external shocks add uncertainty. Market reactions underscore sensitivity to consumer sentiment shifts. Structural trends, including demographic shifts and digital transformation, continue to reshape consumption patterns over the long run.
Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming inflation data, labor market reports, and geopolitical developments closely. The balance of risks points to a cautious but not dire outlook, with potential for recovery if inflation eases and fiscal support increases.
Key data source: Sigmanomics database, incorporating official ES government releases and proprietary survey data. Methodology includes seasonally adjusted indices and cross-verified inflation and labor statistics.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence readings strongly influence markets tied to consumer spending and economic growth. The following symbols historically track ES consumer sentiment closely:
ESX – ES equity index, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
EURUSD – Currency pair reflecting ES economic outlook and monetary policy.
CON – Consumer discretionary sector ETF, directly impacted by confidence shifts.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk barometer in volatile economic periods.
GBPUSD – Influenced by regional trade and confidence spillovers.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. ESX Index Since 2020
Since 2020, the ES Consumer Confidence Index and the ESX equity index have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.72). Periods of rising confidence typically coincide with ESX rallies, while dips in confidence precede market pullbacks. The December 2025 decline in confidence aligns with a 0.40% drop in ESX futures, underscoring the index’s predictive power for equity market sentiment.
FAQ
What is the current Consumer Confidence level in ES?
The December 2025 Consumer Confidence Index for ES stands at 78.70, down from 81.50 in November.
How does Consumer Confidence affect ES economic growth?
Consumer Confidence influences household spending, which accounts for about 60% of ES GDP, making it a key growth driver.
What are the risks to Consumer Confidence in the near term?
Risks include persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and labor market uncertainties that could further erode consumer sentiment.
Key takeaway: The December 2025 Consumer Confidence decline signals caution ahead, with inflation and geopolitical risks clouding the outlook. Monitoring inflation trends and policy responses will be critical for assessing the recovery path.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - ES Events
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.38
Low
Monday, October 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
2.4
1.5
2.08
High
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
1
0.4
-0.6
-0.10
High
Friday, October 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-5.2
-1.4
1.9
1.13
Low
07:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
11.21
11.27
11.2
11.26
High
Friday, October 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
-
89.4
89
89.35
Medium
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-4.8
-3.2
-3.9
-3.42
Medium
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0
-0.6
-0.68
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.3
1.5
1.45
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.35
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.4
1.7
1.67
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0
-0.1
-0.12
Low
Friday, October 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.13
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
57
54.6
54
54.17
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
56.3
53.5
50.9
51.45
Low
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
3.2
21.9
25
20.40
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
7.3
7.3
10
8.08
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:10
ES
New Car Sales YoY
6.3
-6.5
-4
-3.92
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
53
50.5
50.1
50.17
High
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ES
Current Account
5.79
5.78
5.3
5.43
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-0.7
-3.5
-3
-2.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.65
Low
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.87
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.4
1.9
1.87
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.3
1.9
1.85
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
3.1
2.5
2.9
3.18
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0
-0.1
-0.18
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0
0
-0.02
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.5
-0.6
-0.10
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
1.1
1.9
2.48
High
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-1.3
-1.6
-2
-2.77
Low
Friday, September 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-3.2
-0.7
-4.2
-3.72
Medium
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.4
2.37
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.5
0
-0.08
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.7
0
-0.02
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.8
2.2
2.15
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.65
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.17
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
89.4
88.4
87.5
87.85
Medium
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
53.4
54
54.55
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
53.9
54.5
54.67
High
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
21.9
-10.8
34.3
29.70
High
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
-6.5
3.4
5
5.08
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.5
51
51.5
51.57
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
7.3
12.1
14
12.08
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
5.02
5.56
4.5
4.63
Low
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
1
0.4
0.5
1.08
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.60
High
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-3.6
-4.2
-4
-3.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.5
0.1
0.02
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.65
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.5
2.47
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.8
2.4
2.35
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.7
0.2
0.18
Low
Monday, August 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-1.4
-3.2
-3.2
-3.97
Low
Monday, August 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:25
ES
Balance of Trade
-0.7
-2.3
-3.5
-3.02
Medium
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.3
-0.5
-0.58
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.7
0.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3
2.8
2.75
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
2.8
2.75
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.6
2.9
2.87
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
53.4
55.8
55
55.55
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
53.9
56.8
56
56.17
High
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.6
0.4
1
0.77
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
12.1
11.5
14.2
12.28
Low
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-10.8
-46.8
-17.4
-22.00
High
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
2.2
1.7
1.78
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
51
52.3
52.5
52.57
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
5.56
2.83
5.8
5.93
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:15
ES
Business Confidence
-4.2
-5.7
-6
-5.25
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.9
2.6
1.5
1.78
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.7
-0.78
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.57
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3
2.8
2.75
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
3
2.95
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.7
0.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.6
3.3
3.27
Low
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
-0.6
0.3
0.80
High
07:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
11.27
12.29
11.4
11.46
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
0.2
1.5
2.08
High
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
88.4
83.8
83
83.35
Medium
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-3.5
-4.5
-4.9
-5.67
Low
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-2.3
-4.7
-3.3
-2.82
Medium
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.22
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.47
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.95
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.35
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:30
ES
Consumer Confidence
83.8
84.5
89
89.35
Medium
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.4
0.2
1.4
1.17
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.8
56.9
56.4
56.57
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.8
56.6
56
56.55
Low
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
11.5
8.3
12
10.08
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-46.78
-58.7
-50.9
-55.50
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
2.2
3.4
5.5
5.58
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
52.3
54
53
53.07
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
Current Account
2.83
3.97
3.6
3.73
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.8
3.4
3.37
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.12
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.6
3.3
3.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
2.6
2.55
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
ES
Business Confidence
-5.7
-6.2
-5
-4.25
Medium
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.2
0.3
1
1.58
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
0.8
0.1
0.60
High
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
2.1
2.4
2.68
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.77
Medium
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-4.6
-6.7
-5.5
-6.27
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-4.7
-2
-3.5
-3.02
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
3.4
3.8
3.77
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.22
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.3
3.6
3.55
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
2.9
3
2.95
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.8
-1.3
0.8
0.57
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
56.6
55.7
56
56.55
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.9
56.2
56
56.17
High
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-58.7
-60.5
-55.4
-60.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:30
ES
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
23.1
12
12.08
Low
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
54
52.2
52.5
52.57
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
8.3
21
15
13.08
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
3.29
1.9
5.6
5.73
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-6.3
-4.3
-3.3
-2.55
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.67
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.3
3.7
3.65
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.22
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.65
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-0.4
1
1.50
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
0.9
1.1
1.68
High
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-6.6
-8.2
-7
-7.77
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:45
ES
Balance of Trade
-2
-2.4
-1.5
-1.02
Medium
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
84.5
82.5
85
85.35
Medium
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.4
0.6
0.58
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.62
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.37
Low
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.3
2.9
2.85
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.25
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-1.2
1.3
1.2
0.97
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.2
56.1
56
56.17
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.7
55.3
54.6
55.15
Low
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-60.5
-33.4
-74.5
-79.10
High
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
21
15.9
21
19.08
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
52.2
51.4
50.8
50.87
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Current Account
1.9
5.13
3.4
3.53
Low
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.47
Medium
07:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.18
Medium
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
Business Confidence
-3.9
-4.7
-4.8
-4.05
Medium
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.27
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.4
0.5
0.48
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.42
Medium
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.35
Medium
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.3
3.3
3.25
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.6
1.8
0.8
1.38
High
07:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.6
1.10
High
07:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
12.29
11.8
11.8
11.86
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
PPI YoY
-8.2
-8.5
-7
-7.77
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
82.5
78.5
84
84.35
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.25
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.4
0.4
1.3
1.28
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.72
Low
07:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
2.9
3.2
3.17
Low
07:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.8
3.2
3.15
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
1.5
0.3
-0.5
-0.73
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
56.1
54.7
55.5
55.67
High
07:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.3
53.9
52.6
53.15
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
51.4
51.5
51
51.07
High
07:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-33.4
-7.452
10
5.40
High
07:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
15.9
15.3
22
20.08
Low
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
-4.7
9.9
8
8.08
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:55
ES
Business Confidence
-5.4
-4.5
-6
-5.25
Medium
09:15
ES
Current Account
5.13
1.54
2.1
2.23
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.15
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.40
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.52
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.9
3.3
3.27
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
1.9
0.5
2
2.58
High
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.3
0.4
1.2
1.18
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.8
3.2
3.15
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2
1.9
2
2.28
Medium
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.67
Medium
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
78.5
78.6
80
80.35
Medium
08:00
ES
PPI YoY
-8.2
-3.9
-1.9
-2.67
Low
Monday, March 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:35
ES
Balance of Trade
-3.7
-3.4
-3.2
-2.72
Medium
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
2.8
2.75
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.35
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.5
2.9
2.87
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ES
CPI
113.8
113.4
114.2
114.20
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.22
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
-1.1
0.5
1.00
High
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
2.7
3.7
4.28
High
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.6
-1.4
0.1
-0.13
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
54.7
52.1
53.5
53.67
High
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
53.9
51.5
52.3
52.85
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
15.3
26.2
30
28.08
Low
08:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-7.452
60.4
-5
-9.60
High
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:50
ES
New Car Sales YoY
9.9
7.3
9.5
9.58
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
51.5
49.2
50
50.07
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Current Account
1.07
2.77
3.3
3.43
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.22
Medium
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.35
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
3.4
2.7
2.65
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.5
2.9
2.87
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ES
Business Confidence
-4.5
-5.4
-4.8
-4.05
Medium
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
PPI YoY
-3.8
-6.3
-5
-5.77
Low
Monday, February 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
78.6
77.6
78
78.35
Medium
09:40
ES
Balance of Trade
-3.4
-2.4
-4.5
-4.02
Medium
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
CPI
113.404
113.3
113
113.00
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.02
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0
-0.2
-0.22
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.55
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.1
3.4
3.35
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.47
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.2
0.9
-0.2
-0.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
51.5
50.4
50.7
51.25
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
52.1
51.5
52.1
52.27
High
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
26.2
18.6
16.5
14.58
Low
08:00
ES
Unemployment Change
60.4
-27.4
40
35.40
High
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:50
ES
New Car Sales YoY
7.3
10.6
11.2
11.28
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.2
46.2
48
48.07
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Current Account
2.77
3.77
5.1
5.23
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
3.1
5
4.1
4.68
High
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.8
0.4
0.90
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ES
Business Confidence
-5.6
-6.7
-6
-5.25
Medium
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.65
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0
-0.3
-0.32
Low
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2
1.9
1.5
1.78
Medium
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.28
Medium
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.05
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.07
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
11.76
11.84
11.9
11.96
High
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
PPI YoY
-6.3
-7.6
-7.3
-8.07
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
77.6
76.7
78
78.35
Medium
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-2.4
-5.1
-4.7
-4.22
Medium
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.27
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.3
0
-0.08
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
4.5
3.8
3.75
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.5
0
-0.02
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.05
Low
08:00
ES
CPI
113.3
113.3
113.3
113.30
High
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.8
-1.4
0.3
0.07
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ES
Business Confidence
-6.8
-9.4
-9.4
-8.65
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
S&P Global Composite PMI
50.4
49.8
50.1
50.25
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
51.5
51
51.2
51.37
Medium
08:15
ES
S&P Global Services PMI
51.5
51
51.2
51.35
High
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Unemployment Change
-27.4
-24.6
-15.7
-20.30
Medium
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.2
46.3
47
47.07
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Consumer Confidence in ES Falls Below Expectations in December December Consumer Confidence Index Declines to 78.70 Consumer Confidence measures how optimistic households feel about the economy and their financial situation. For ES, the December 2025 Consumer Confidence index dropped to 78.70, down from 81.50 in November and below the forecast of 81.00. This decline signals growing caution among consumers as inflation pressures and energy price volatility weigh on spending power. According to Morgan Stanley, “The drop in ES Consumer Confidence reflects mounting concerns over persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, which could slow consumption growth in early 2026.” The index now sits near its lowest level since mid-2025, suggesting that households are tightening budgets ahead of the holiday season. With inflation still above the central bank’s target and credit conditions tightening, consumer sentiment is likely to remain fragile in the near term.
The December Consumer Confidence Index at 78.70 is down from 81.50 in November and below the 12-month average of 84.20. This decline reverses a brief recovery seen in September and October, where confidence peaked at 82.90 and 81.50 respectively.
Comparing the current print to historical data, the index is now at its lowest level since May 2025 (76.50), signaling a sustained weakening in consumer sentiment over the second half of the year.