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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Mining Production MoM fell to -5.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa Mining Production MoM fell to -5.4% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 3.5% from July's -1.9% reading. The reading missed the 2.0% consensus by 7.4%. Mining Production MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Mining Production MoM averaged -0.8%, vs -2.33% in the prior 3-month window. Mining Production MoM is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-5.4
Actual
2
Consensus
-1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.18
Actual: -5.4
Error: +6.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mining Production MoM (South Africa) was reported at -5.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2% by 7.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.26%, ranging from -5.9% to 3.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.33%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.71%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Mining Production MoM has averaged -1.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.68%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Mining Production MoM - ZA
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About Mining Production MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
Mining Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of the mining sector from one month to the next. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and performance of the mining industry, which plays a crucial role in the global economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can indicate trends in commodity prices, supply and demand dynamics, and overall economic growth. A positive MoM change in mining production suggests an increase in mining activity and can have a positive impact on the economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown in the sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -5.4 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.72 | Medium |
| 08:00 | ZA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | ZA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.25 | Low |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3 | 3.02 | Low |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.3 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -1.32 | Low |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | ZA | Building Permits YoY | 4.1 | 3.2 | -2.10 | Low | |