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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.4 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
South Africa Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.4 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 1.3 from January's 48.7 reading.
Latest Release
47.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
48.700000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing PMI (South Africa) was reported at 47.40 in March 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 48.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 46.67, ranging from 40.50 to 52.20 across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 45.53, down from the prior three at 47.80. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.11) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.71).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Manufacturing PMI - ZA
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About Manufacturing PMI — South Africa
DEFINITION
Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This widely followed indicator is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to assess the overall economic performance and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 47.4. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 48.7. Before that (Dec 2025): 40.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |