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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Full Year GDP Growth fell to 5.03% in February 2025
FMPQuarterlyReleased February 2025
Indonesia Full Year GDP Growth fell to 5.03% in February 2025, down 0.02% from January's 5.05% reading. The reading matched the 5.2% consensus. Full Year GDP Growth has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Full Year GDP Growth is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
5.03
Actual
5.2
Consensus
5.05
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Feb 2025
Predicted: 5.2
Actual: 5.03
Error: +0.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Year GDP Growth (Indonesia) was reported at 5.03% in February 2025. This missed the market consensus of 5.2% by 0.17%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.05%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.13%, up from the prior three at 2.21%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Full Year GDP Growth - ID
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About Full Year GDP Growth — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Full Year GDP Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the overall growth of a country's economy over the course of a year. It takes into account the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders and is a crucial measure of economic health and stability. A high Full Year GDP Growth indicates a strong and growing economy, while a low or negative growth rate may signal economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic performance of a country.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 5.11 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Feb 2025): 5.03 %. Before that (Feb 2024): 5.05 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.