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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia CPI YoY climbed to 4.38% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
India CPI YoY climbed to 4.38% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.45% from May's 3.93% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months.
Latest Release
4.38
Actual
4.3
Consensus
3.93
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.2
Actual: 4.38
Error: -0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (India) was reported at 4.38% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.3% by 0.08%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.93%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI YoY - IN
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About CPI YoY — India
DEFINITION
India's CPI YoY for June came in at 4.38%, missing the 4.30% estimate but rising from May's 3.93%. The inflation rate decelerated from May's 4.78% but remains elevated compared to April's 3.48%, indicating persistent price pressures. Market focus will remain on upcoming RBI policy decisions amid this inflation trajectory. Updated 7/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.38 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.78 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.48 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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