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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia India CPI Inflation climbed to 4.38 Percent in June 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased July 2026
India India CPI Inflation climbed to 4.38 Percent in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.45 Percent from May's 3.93 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.380000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.930000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
India CPI Inflation (India) was reported at 4.38 Percent in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.93 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.20 Percent, ranging from 0.05 Percent to 4.38 Percent across 12 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.86 Percent, up from the prior three at 0.17 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.40 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.89 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, India CPI Inflation has averaged 2.60 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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India CPI Inflation - IN
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About India CPI Inflation — India
DEFINITION
India CPI Inflation rose to 4.380000 percent in July, up from June’s 3.930000 percent, marking a clear acceleration in price pressures. The increase from June to July signals a faster inflation pace compared to the prior month. Market participants will closely watch upcoming RBI policy decisions amid this inflation uptick. Updated 7/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.38 Percent. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.93 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 0.27 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | 53.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | IN | Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | Medium | |
| 04:30 | IN | Cash Reserve Ratio | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.25 | Low | |
| 05:00 | IN | HSBC India Services PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.55 | Low | |