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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia India CPI Inflation climbed to 5.54 Percent in September 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased October 2026
India India CPI Inflation climbed to 5.54 Percent in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.71 Percent from August's 4.83 Percent reading.
Latest Release
5.540000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.830000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
India CPI Inflation (India) was reported at 5.54 Percent in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.83 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.84 Percent, ranging from 0.05 Percent to 5.54 Percent across 12 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.57 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.86 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.99 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.89 Percent). In October readings over the past 3 years, India CPI Inflation has averaged 4.19 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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India CPI Inflation - IN
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About India CPI Inflation — India
DEFINITION
India CPI Inflation rose to 5.540000 percent in September, up from August's 4.830000 percent, marking a notable acceleration. The increase signals a sharp inflationary trend in India as consumer prices expanded more rapidly month-over-month. Market participants will closely watch upcoming central bank decisions amid this inflation surge. Updated 10/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 5.54 Percent. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.73 Percent. Before that (Aug 2026): 4.45 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bearish USD, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |