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Data from Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Interest Rate Decision climbed to 0.5% in October 2021
Reserve Bank of New ZealandMonthlyReleased October 2021
New Zealand Interest Rate Decision climbed to 0.5% in October 2021, up 0.25% from September's 0.25% reading. The reading matched the 0.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Interest Rate Decision averaged 0.25%, vs 0.25% in the prior 3-month window. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2021
Predicted: 0.44
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (New Zealand) was reported at 0.5% in October 2021. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.25%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at 0.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (May 27) and Monetary Policy Statement (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2021.
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Interest Rate Decision - NZ
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About Interest Rate Decision — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2021): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2021): 0.5 %. Before that (Aug 2021): 0.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.