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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Full Year GDP Growth held to 3.6% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased January 2026
Poland Full Year GDP Growth held to 3.6% in January 2026. The reading matched the 3.5% consensus. Full Year GDP Growth has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Full Year GDP Growth is now the highest in 24 months.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
3.5
Consensus
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3.6
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Year GDP Growth (Poland) was reported at 3.6% in January 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.5% by 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.23%, down from the prior three at 2.6%. In January readings over the past 3 years, Full Year GDP Growth has averaged 2.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Full Year GDP Growth - PL
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About Full Year GDP Growth — Poland
DEFINITION
Full Year GDP Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the overall growth of a country's economy over the course of a year. It takes into account the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders and is a crucial measure of economic health and stability. A high Full Year GDP Growth indicates a strong and growing economy, while a low or negative growth rate may signal economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic performance of a country.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2025): 2.9 %. Before that (Jan 2024): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.