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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Unemployment Change climbed to 38.7K in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
Spain Unemployment Change climbed to 38.7K in January 2025, released February 2025, up 64K from December's -25.3K reading. The print came in cooler than the 45.4K consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -12.22K. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Change averaged -20.65K, vs 17.3K in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Change is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
38.7
Actual
45.4
Consensus
-25.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.96 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2025
Predicted: 39.38
Actual: 38.7
Error: +0.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Change (Spain) was reported at 39 thousand in February 2025. This missed the market consensus of 45 thousand by 7 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -25 thousand. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1 thousand, down from the prior three at 17 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 23) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Unemployment Change - ES
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About Unemployment Change — Spain
DEFINITION
Unemployment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of unemployed individuals within a specific time period. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A decrease in unemployment change indicates a growing economy, while an increase may suggest a slowing or struggling economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and predictions about future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2025): actual 38.7 K, consensus 45.4 K. Prior reading (Dec 2024): -25.3 K. Before that (Nov 2024): -16 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.