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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Balance of Trade climbed to -28.21B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
India Balance of Trade climbed to -28.21B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.17B from April's -28.38B reading. The reading matched the -27B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -48.08B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -51.41B, vs -37.74B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-28.21
Actual
-27
Consensus
-28.38
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.19 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -28.91
Actual: -28.38
Error: -0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (India) was reported at -28.21 billion in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -28.38 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -42.95 billion, ranging from -93.60 billion to -18.78 billion across 16 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -66.39 billion, down from the prior three at -51.79 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 26.52 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.37 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -37.80 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.19 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IN
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About Balance of Trade — India
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -28.21 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -28.21 B. Before that (Jan 2026): -83.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.