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India Balance of Trade climbed to -28.21B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.17B from April's -28.38B reading. The reading matched the -27B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -48.08B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -51.41B, vs -37.74B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
across last 12 releases
May 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Balance of Trade (India) was reported at -28.21 billion in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -28.38 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -42.95 billion, ranging from -93.60 billion to -18.78 billion across 16 releases.
The trailing three releases averaged -66.39 billion, down from the prior three at -51.79 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 26.52 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.37 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -37.80 billion.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.19 billion.
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -28.21 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -28.21 B. Before that (Jan 2026): -83.4 B.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | WPI Fuel YoY | 30.33 | 24.89 | 25 | 26.29 | Low | |
| 06:30 | WPI Food Index YoY | 4.49 | 3.11 | 2.1 | 2.69 | Low | |
| 06:30 | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.68 | 8.26 | 9.1 | 9.28 | Low | |
| 06:30 | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 7.48 | 6.68 | 4.9 | 5.53 | Low | |
| 09:30 | Balance of Trade | -28.21 | -28.38 | -27 | -26.90 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | Unemployment Rate | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | Balance of Trade | -28.38 | -27 | -26.90 | Low | ||