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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Trade Balance fell to -6.9B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
Turkey Trade Balance fell to -6.9B in September 2025, released October 2025, down 2.69B from August's -4.21B reading. The reading matched the -6.9B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -5.97B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -5.59B, vs -8.35B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6.9
Actual
-6.9
Consensus
-4.21
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 billion
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -6.91
Actual: -6.9
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Turkey) was reported at -7.40 billion in November 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of -4.17 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -7.07 billion, down from the prior three at -4.95 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/TRY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2025.
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Trade Balance - TR
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About Trade Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual -7.4 B. Prior reading (Sep 2025): -6.9 B. Before that (Sep 2025): -6.9 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bearish USD, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.84 | 1.8 | 1.77 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 29.73 | 30 | 29.98 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 27.38 | 28 | 28.21 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.07 | 1.9 | 2.16 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 28.7 | 29 | 29.00 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 2.14 | 2 | 2.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -5.16 | -5.5 | -3.30 | Medium | |