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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand NZIER Business Confidence climbed to -1.0% in July 2024
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2024
New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence climbed to -1.0% in July 2024, released September 2024, up 43.0% from June's -44.0% reading. The print exceeded the -34.0% consensus by 33.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -42.33%. NZIER Business Confidence is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
-34
Consensus
-44
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±33 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Sep 2024
Predicted: -34
Actual: -1
Error: -33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NZIER Business Confidence (New Zealand) was reported at 16% in January 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of -1%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -9.67%, up from the prior three at -26.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (May 27) and Monetary Policy Statement (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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NZIER Business Confidence - NZ
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About NZIER Business Confidence — New Zealand
DEFINITION
NZIER Business Confidence is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in New Zealand. It is based on a survey of business leaders and provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions in the country. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact investment decisions and economic policies. A positive reading indicates a favorable business environment, while a negative reading may suggest potential challenges and risks for the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2024): actual 16 %. Prior reading (Jul 2024): -1 %. Before that (Apr 2024): -44 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.