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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone CPI MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone CPI MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.3% from June's -0.1% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.04%. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 1.07%, vs 1.02% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
2.8
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 0.2
Error: +2.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (European Union) was reported at 0.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 2.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.89%, ranging from 0.1% to 2.8% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.03%, up from the prior three at 0.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (Aug 27) and Economic Sentiment (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI MoM - EU
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About CPI MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
EU CPI MoM rose 0.20% in August, sharply missing the 2.80% estimate. This follows July’s 2.80% increase, marking a significant slowdown in monthly inflation. The subdued reading may influence ECB policy as markets weigh upcoming inflation data. Updated 8/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Companies YoY | 4 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Households YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Private sector loans YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low | |