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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone New Car Registrations YoY fell to -3.9% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Eurozone New Car Registrations YoY fell to -3.9% in January 2026, released February 2026, down 9.7% from December's 5.8% reading. The print exceeded the -4.8% consensus by 0.9%. New Car Registrations YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. New Car Registrations YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-3.9
Actual
-4.8
Consensus
5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: -4.7
Actual: -3.9
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Registrations YoY (European Union) was reported at -3.9% in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of -4.8% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.63%, ranging from -7.3% to 10% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.33%, down from the prior three at 7.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.44%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.81%). In February readings over the past 3 years, New Car Registrations YoY has averaged 1.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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New Car Registrations YoY - EU
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About New Car Registrations YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
New Car Registrations YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of new cars registered in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. This data is often used by economists and investors to assess the health of the automotive industry and consumer spending habits. A higher YoY percentage indicates an increase in new car sales, while a lower percentage suggests a decline. This indicator can provide valuable insights into the overall economic growth and consumer confidence in a particular country or region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -3.9 %, consensus -4.8 %. Prior reading (Nov 2025): 2.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 5.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.