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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Marginal Lending Rate held to 2.65% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate held to 2.65% in July 2026. The reading matched the 2.65% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.25%. Over the past 3 months, Marginal Lending Rate averaged 2.53%, vs 2.4% in the prior 3-month window. Marginal Lending Rate is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.65
Actual
2.65
Consensus
2.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.65
Actual: 2.65
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Marginal Lending Rate (European Union) was reported at 2.65% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.65% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.47%, ranging from 2.4% to 2.65% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.57%, up from the prior three at 2.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.53%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Marginal Lending Rate has averaged 3.18%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Marginal Lending Rate - EU
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About Marginal Lending Rate — European Union
DEFINITION
The Marginal Lending Rate is a key financial indicator used by central banks to control the supply of money in an economy. It represents the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow funds from the central bank, and serves as a benchmark for other interest rates in the market. This rate is often adjusted by central banks to influence economic growth, inflation, and overall financial stability. As such, it is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as a measure of the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.65 %, consensus 2.65 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.65 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |