Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Marginal Lending Rate held to 2.9% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate held to 2.9% in October 2026. The reading matched the 2.9% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.5%. Marginal Lending Rate is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.9
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 2.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Marginal Lending Rate (European Union) was reported at 2.9% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.9% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.59%, ranging from 2.4% to 2.9% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.82%, up from the prior three at 2.48%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Marginal Lending Rate has averaged 2.98%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Marginal Lending Rate - EU
Loading chart data...
About Marginal Lending Rate — European Union
DEFINITION
The Marginal Lending Rate is a key financial indicator used by central banks to control the supply of money in an economy. It represents the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow funds from the central bank, and serves as a benchmark for other interest rates in the market. This rate is often adjusted by central banks to influence economic growth, inflation, and overall financial stability. As such, it is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as a measure of the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 2.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.65 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |