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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Marginal Lending Rate climbed to 2.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate climbed to 2.9% in September 2026, up 0.25% from August's 2.65% reading. The reading matched the 2.9% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.5%. Marginal Lending Rate is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.9
Consensus
2.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 2.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Marginal Lending Rate (European Union) was reported at 2.9% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.9% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.65%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.54%, ranging from 2.4% to 2.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, up from the prior three at 2.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.46%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Marginal Lending Rate has averaged 3.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Marginal Lending Rate - EU
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About Marginal Lending Rate — European Union
DEFINITION
The Marginal Lending Rate is a key financial indicator used by central banks to control the supply of money in an economy. It represents the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow funds from the central bank, and serves as a benchmark for other interest rates in the market. This rate is often adjusted by central banks to influence economic growth, inflation, and overall financial stability. As such, it is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as a measure of the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.65 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.65 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | 8.6 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 39.9 | 48.25 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | -0.4 | -0.40 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production YoY | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.98 | Low |