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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Economic Sentiment fell to 9.5 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone Economic Sentiment fell to 9.5 in June 2026, down 84 from May's 93.5 reading. The reading missed the 91.5 consensus by 82. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 75.85. Over the past 3 months, Economic Sentiment averaged 93.25, vs 78.53 in the prior 3-month window. Economic Sentiment is now the lowest in 14 months.
Latest Release
9.5
Actual
91.5
Consensus
93.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.61
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 91.85
Actual: 9.5
Error: +82.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Sentiment (European Union) was reported at 9.50 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 91.50 by 82.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 93.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 65.86, ranging from 9.50 to 99.40 across 20 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 66.53, down from the prior three at 79.03. Volatility over the past year (σ 34.20) is comparable than the prior year (σ 36.84). In June readings over the past 3 years, Economic Sentiment has averaged 66.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.62.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB General Council Meeting (Jun 25) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Economic Sentiment - EU
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About Economic Sentiment — European Union
DEFINITION
index The economic sentiment index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall confidence and outlook of consumers and businesses towards the economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer spending, business investment, and employment trends to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current economic climate. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high economic sentiment index indicates a positive outlook, while a low index suggests a more cautious or negative sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 9.5, consensus 91.5. Prior reading (May 2026): -9.1. Before that (Apr 2026): -20.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Monday, June 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Companies YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.65 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | M3 Money Supply YoY | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.75 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Households YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.15 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 27.4 | 30 | 32.35 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -8 | -9 | -8.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 2.2 | -1 | -0.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 40.5 | 42 | 44.85 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 9.5 | 93.5 | 91.5 | 70.95 | Medium |