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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Economic Sentiment fell to 97.9 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Economic Sentiment fell to 97.9 in September 2026, down 0.5 from August's 98.4 reading. The reading matched the 99 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 81.81. Over the past 3 months, Economic Sentiment averaged 97.65, vs 93.83 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
97.9
Actual
99
Consensus
98.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.72
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 99.45
Actual: 97.9
Error: +1.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Sentiment (European Union) was reported at 97.90 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 99.00 by 1.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 98.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 76.76, ranging from 22.70 to 99.40 across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 97.73, up from the prior three at 95.03. Volatility over the past year (σ 30.27) is lower than the prior year (σ 37.27). In September readings over the past 3 years, Economic Sentiment has averaged 78.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.72.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 9) and ECB Lagarde Speech (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Economic Sentiment - EU
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About Economic Sentiment — European Union
DEFINITION
index The economic sentiment index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall confidence and outlook of consumers and businesses towards the economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer spending, business investment, and employment trends to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current economic climate. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high economic sentiment index indicates a positive outlook, while a low index suggests a more cautious or negative sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 25.8, consensus 94.5. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 31.4. Before that (Jul 2026): 23.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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