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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Economic Sentiment fell to 31.4 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone Economic Sentiment fell to 31.4 in August 2026, down 65.5 from July's 96.9 reading. The reading missed the 96.4 consensus by 65. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 81.69. Over the past 3 months, Economic Sentiment averaged 95.95, vs 94.37 in the prior 3-month window. Economic Sentiment is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
31.4
Actual
96.4
Consensus
96.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.72
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 96.8
Actual: 31.4
Error: +65.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Sentiment (European Union) was reported at 31.40 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 96.40 by 65.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 96.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 71.11, ranging from 22.70 to 99.40 across 18 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 74.43, down from the prior three at 96.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 32.04) is lower than the prior year (σ 37.14). In August readings over the past 3 years, Economic Sentiment has averaged 68.32.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.72.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI MoM (Aug 19) and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Economic Sentiment - EU
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About Economic Sentiment — European Union
DEFINITION
index The economic sentiment index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall confidence and outlook of consumers and businesses towards the economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer spending, business investment, and employment trends to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current economic climate. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high economic sentiment index indicates a positive outlook, while a low index suggests a more cautious or negative sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 31.4, consensus 96.4. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 23.4. Before that (Jun 2026): 9.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 23.4 | 25.4 | 28.40 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Construction Output YoY | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.15 | Low | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.8 | 51.60 | Medium | |
| 08:00 | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52 | 51.7 | 51.05 | Medium | |
| 08:00 | EU | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.7 | 51.5 | 50.85 | Medium | |