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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 25.8 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 25.8 Points in September 2026, down 5.6 Points from August's 31.4 Points reading. The reading missed the 39.9 Points consensus by 14.1 Points. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 17.97 Points. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
25.8
Actual
39.9
Consensus
31.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.15
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 42.9
Actual: 25.8
Error: +17.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (European Union) was reported at 25.80 Points in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 39.90 Points by 14.10 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 31.40 Points. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 21.07 Points, ranging from -9.10 Points to 40.80 Points across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 22.23 Points, up from the prior three at 7.27 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.18 Points) is higher than the prior year (σ 14.67 Points). In September readings over the past 3 years, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has averaged 20.40 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.15 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 9) and ECB Lagarde Speech (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ZEW Economic Sentiment Index - EU
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About ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — European Union
DEFINITION
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among financial experts and analysts regarding the economic outlook of a particular country. It provides valuable insights into future economic trends and can be used as a reliable tool for making informed investment decisions. The index is based on a monthly survey of over 300 experts and is considered a key indicator of economic sentiment in the financial world.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 25.8 Points, consensus 39.9 Points. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 31.4 Points. Before that (Jun 2026): 9.5 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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