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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Private sector loans held to 3.0% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Eurozone Private sector loans held to 3.0% in January 2026, released February 2026. The reading matched the 3.1% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.23%. Over the past 3 months, Private sector loans averaged 2.95%, vs 2.63% in the prior 3-month window. Private sector loans is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 3.15
Actual: 3
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private sector loans (European Union) was reported at 3% in February 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.1% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.97%, up from the prior three at 2.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Private sector loans - EU
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About Private sector loans — European Union
DEFINITION
Private sector loans refer to loans that are issued by private financial institutions, such as banks and credit unions, to individuals and businesses. These loans are not backed by the government and typically have higher interest rates compared to government-backed loans. Private sector loans are an important indicator of the overall health of the economy, as they reflect the level of borrowing and investment activity in the private sector. They can also provide insight into consumer and business confidence, as well as potential risks in the financial system.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 3 %. Before that (Nov 2025): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |