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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed to 33.0% in August 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed to 33.0% in August 2026, up 2.6% from July's 30.4% reading. The reading missed the 36.0% consensus by 3.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 18.32%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectation averaged 12.95%, vs 27.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
33
Actual
36
Consensus
30.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 34.58
Actual: 33
Error: +1.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectation (European Union) was reported at 33% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 36% by 3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 30.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.97%, ranging from 2.5% to 43.4% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 22.07%, up from the prior three at 13.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.27%) is higher than the prior year (σ 10.9%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Inflation Expectation has averaged 16.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.47%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB President Lagarde Speech (Sep 12) and ECB President Lagarde Speech (Sep 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Consumer Inflation Expectation - EU
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About Consumer Inflation Expectation — European Union
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectation is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence or concern that consumers have about the future purchasing power of their money. This indicator is important for businesses and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending and economic growth. A higher consumer inflation expectation may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer spending, while a lower expectation may result in lower prices and increased consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 33 %, consensus 36 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 30.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.64) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | 8.6 | 14.4 | 10.00 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 39.5 | 47.85 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production YoY | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | Low | |