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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 30.3% in July 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 30.3% in July 2026, down 3.7% from June's 34.0% reading. The reading missed the 38.0% consensus by 7.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 17.93%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectation averaged 17.0%, vs 21.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
30.3
Actual
38
Consensus
34
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 35.61
Actual: 30.3
Error: +5.31
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.85 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectation (European Union) was reported at 30.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 38% by 7.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 34%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.62%, ranging from 2.5% to 43.4% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 22.43%, up from the prior three at 16%. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.98%) is higher than the prior year (σ 10.74%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Inflation Expectation has averaged 15.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Inflation Expectation - EU
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About Consumer Inflation Expectation — European Union
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectation is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence or concern that consumers have about the future purchasing power of their money. This indicator is important for businesses and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending and economic growth. A higher consumer inflation expectation may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer spending, while a lower expectation may result in lower prices and increased consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 30.3 %, consensus 38 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 34 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.85) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |