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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to 2.8% in December 2024
EurostatMonthlyReleased January 2025
Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to 2.8% in December 2024, released January 2025, up 0.2% from November's 2.6% reading. The print exceeded the 2.2% consensus by 0.6%. Consumer Inflation Expectations has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectations averaged 12.8%, vs 7.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 3
Actual: 2.8
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectations (European Union) was reported at 2.8% in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of 2.2% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.6%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 14.67%, up from the prior three at 7.6%. In January readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Inflation Expectations has averaged 10.31%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jun 19) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Consumer Inflation Expectations - EU
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About Consumer Inflation Expectations — European Union
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectations is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence and expectations that consumers have regarding the future increase in prices of goods and services. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can provide insights into consumer spending behavior and potential changes in the overall economy. A higher level of consumer inflation expectations may indicate a potential rise in inflation, while a lower level may suggest a more stable or even declining inflation rate.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual 2.8 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2025): 20.2 %. Before that (Dec 2024): 21 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.