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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 5.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 5.8% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.2% from June's 4.6% reading. The print exceeded the 4.7% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.63%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 5.25%, vs 1.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.8
Actual
4.7
Consensus
4.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.75
Actual: 5.8
Error: -1.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (European Union) was reported at 5.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.7% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.4%, ranging from -2.1% to 5.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.43%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.96%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - EU
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About Producer Price Index YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU Producer Price Index YoY for August came in at 5.800%, beating the 4.700% estimate and rising from July’s 4.600%. This marks a notable acceleration in producer inflation, reversing the prior month’s slowdown. Markets will closely watch upcoming ECB policy moves amid persistent price pressures. Updated 9/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.8 %, consensus 4.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | 8.6 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 39.9 | 48.25 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | -0.4 | -0.40 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production YoY | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.98 | Low |