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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone HICP YoY climbed to 2.3% in May 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone HICP YoY climbed to 2.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.2% from April's 2.1% reading. The reading matched the 2.3% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.1%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.18%, vs 2.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.3
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.3
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (European Union) was reported at 2.2% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.31%, ranging from 2.1% to 2.4% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.23%, down from the prior three at 2.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.09%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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HICP YoY - EU
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About HICP YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's HICP YoY for July came in at 2.200000%, up from June's 2.100000%, indicating a slight acceleration in inflation. This rise marks continued upward pressure on consumer prices compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming ECB communications closely for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |