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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone HICP YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased May 2026
Eurozone HICP YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from March's 2.2% reading. The reading matched the 2.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.24%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.19%, vs 2.32% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.01 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.08
Actual: 2.1
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (European Union) was reported at 2.3% in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.32%, ranging from 2.1% to 2.4% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.2%, down from the prior three at 2.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.12%). In June readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.01%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Eurogroup Meeting (Jun 11) and Deposit Facility Rate (Jun 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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HICP YoY - EU
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About HICP YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's HICP YoY rose to 2.300000% in May, up from April's 2.100000%, marking a clear acceleration in inflation. This increase signals a rebound after two months near 2.1%, indicating renewed upward pressure on consumer prices. Market participants will watch upcoming ECB communications closely for any shifts in monetary policy stance. Updated 6/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.