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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone HICP YoY climbed to 2.2% in July 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone HICP YoY climbed to 2.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from June's 2.1% reading. The reading matched the 2.2% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.2%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.27%, vs 2.18% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.2
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.2
Actual: 2.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (European Union) was reported at 2.1% in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.28%, ranging from 2.1% to 2.4% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.17%, down from the prior three at 2.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In September readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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HICP YoY - EU
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About HICP YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's HICP YoY for August came in at 2.100000%, down from July's 2.200000%, marking a continued easing in inflation pressures. This decline from July to August confirms a moderation trend in consumer price growth across the Eurozone. Market participants will watch upcoming ECB communications closely for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | 8.6 | 3.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 39.9 | 48.25 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production YoY | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.98 | Low |