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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Labour Cost Index YoY fell to 3.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone Labour Cost Index YoY fell to 3.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.1% from December's 3.3% reading. The reading matched the 3.3% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.74%. Labour Cost Index YoY is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.45
Actual: 3.2
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Labour Cost Index YoY (European Union) was reported at 3.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.41%, ranging from 3.2% to 3.7% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.27%, down from the prior three at 3.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.62%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Labour Cost Index YoY has averaged 3.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Labour Cost Index YoY - EU
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About Labour Cost Index YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The Labour Cost Index YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average cost of labor for businesses over a one-year period. It takes into account wages, salaries, and benefits, providing valuable insights into the overall cost of labor and its impact on the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it reflects the level of inflation and can influence decisions related to wages, prices, and economic policies. A higher Labour Cost Index YoY indicates an increase in labor costs, while a lower index suggests a decrease, making it a crucial tool for understanding the health of the labor market and the economy as a whole.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.80) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |