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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Labour Cost Index YoY fell to 3.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Labour Cost Index YoY fell to 3.1% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from March's 3.2% reading. The reading matched the 3.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.48%. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.32 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3.1
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Labour Cost Index YoY (European Union) was reported at 3.1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.24%, ranging from 3% to 3.5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.1%, down from the prior three at 3.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.51%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Labour Cost Index YoY has averaged 3.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Labour Cost Index YoY - EU
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About Labour Cost Index YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The Labour Cost Index YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average cost of labor for businesses over a one-year period. It takes into account wages, salaries, and benefits, providing valuable insights into the overall cost of labor and its impact on the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it reflects the level of inflation and can influence decisions related to wages, prices, and economic policies. A higher Labour Cost Index YoY indicates an increase in labor costs, while a lower index suggests a decrease, making it a crucial tool for understanding the health of the labor market and the economy as a whole.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |