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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Business Confidence fell to -0.28 in March 2020
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2020
Eurozone Business Confidence fell to -0.28 in March 2020, down 0.22 from February's -0.06 reading. The reading missed the -0.05 consensus by 0.23. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.01. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged -0.17, vs -0.21 in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
-0.28
Actual
-0.05
Consensus
-0.06
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2020
Predicted: -0.03
Actual: -0.28
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (European Union) was reported at -2.43 in May 2020. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.99.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.51, down from the prior three at -0.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB General Council Meeting (Jun 25) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2020.
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Business Confidence - EU
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About Business Confidence — European Union
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2020): actual -2.43. Prior reading (Apr 2020): -1.81. Before that (Mar 2020): -0.28.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Monday, June 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Companies YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.65 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | M3 Money Supply YoY | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.75 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Households YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.15 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 27.4 | 30 | 32.35 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -8 | -9 | -8.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 2.2 | -1 | -0.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 40.5 | 42 | 44.85 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 9.5 | 93.5 | 91.5 | 70.95 | Medium |