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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Private Loans YoY held to -0.1% in February 2015
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2015
Eurozone Private Loans YoY held to -0.1% in February 2015, released March 2015. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.88%. Over the past 3 months, Private Loans YoY averaged 0.7%, vs -1.15% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Mar 2015
Predicted: 0.78
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Loans YoY (European Union) was reported at -0.1% in March 2015. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.2%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.97%, up from the prior three at -1.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB Lagarde Speech (Jun 17) and ECB President Lagarde Speech (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2015.
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Private Loans YoY - EU
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About Private Loans YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
Private Loans YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of private loans being issued. This indicator provides insight into the overall lending activity of private institutions and can be used to assess the health of the credit market. A positive change in Private Loans YoY may indicate a growing economy and increased consumer confidence, while a negative change may suggest a tightening credit market and potential economic slowdown. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to monitor the lending landscape and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2015): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2015): -0.1 %. Before that (Dec 2014): 3.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.