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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.5% from March's 0.5% reading. The reading matched the 1.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.13%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.65%, vs 1.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1
Actual: 1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (European Union) was reported at 1% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.07%, ranging from 0.3% to 1.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, down from the prior three at 1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.19%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - EU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's Gross Domestic Product YoY for July came in at 1.000000%, matching estimates and rising from June's 0.300000%. This marks a clear acceleration in annual growth after a slowdown earlier in the year. Market focus now shifts to upcoming ECB policy decisions amid this rebound. Updated 8/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |