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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.3% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.3% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.9% from December's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.26%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 0.8%, vs 1.25% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (European Union) was reported at 0.3% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.19%, ranging from 0.3% to 1.5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, down from the prior three at 1.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jun 19) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - EU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU Gross Domestic Product YoY for May came in at 0.300000%, missing the 0.800000% estimate and down sharply from April’s 0.800000%. This marks a significant slowdown in annual growth, reflecting weakening economic momentum. Market focus will remain on ECB policy decisions amid subdued growth data. Updated 6/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.