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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone HICP MoM climbed to 0.8% in April 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased May 2026
Eurozone HICP MoM climbed to 0.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.1% from March's 0.7% reading. The reading matched the 0.8% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged 0.27%, vs 0.38% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (European Union) was reported at 0.3% in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -0.8% to 2.3% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.59%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.61%). In June readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB Lagarde Speech (Jun 9) and Eurogroup Meeting (Jun 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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HICP MoM - EU
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About HICP MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's HICP MoM rose 0.300000% in May, down sharply from April's 0.800000%. This slowdown signals easing inflationary pressures after two consecutive months above 0.7%. Markets will watch upcoming ECB communications closely for policy adjustments. Updated 6/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.