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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone HICP MoM fell to 0.3% in May 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone HICP MoM fell to 0.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.5% from April's 0.8% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.48%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged 0.66%, vs 0.34% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 56th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (European Union) was reported at 0% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -0.8% to 2.3% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.6%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.55%). In June readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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HICP MoM - EU
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About HICP MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's HICP MoM for July registered at 0.000000%, marking a miss from June's 0.200000% reading. This flat inflation rate signals a halt in monthly price increases after June's modest rise. Market focus now shifts to upcoming ECB policy decisions amid this cooling inflation trend. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |